Results are in for our phenology expedition

We finished the Predicting Past and Present Phenology expedition last week.   Thanks to everyone who took part and helped us get this large expedition completed.   The expedition was no doubt a challenge (!) and we really appreciate all the folks who stuck with it.  What we learned is that not only is it very challenging to score phenology sheets, especially without stronger tutorials and other rubrics in place to help guide you – but it really does vary by taxonomic group just how challenging this is.  We couldn’t have guessed this, but Hamamelis virginiana (American Witch Hazel) and Taraxcum officinale (the dandelion) were by far the hardest ones to get right.  By contrast, Amelanchier canadensis (known as the Canadian serviceberry) had an 85% unanimous match rate.   

So what are we going to do with these results? We may be going back to the drawing board a little bit — since we recognize the challenge with scoring “mostly open flowers”.  Instead we might ask for just noting if there are any open flowers (or unopened flowers or fruits), as we have in the past.  We are also certainly going to be focusing on the species below that had the best results from this trial.

We learned a lot doing this, and we do plan to use the results for our continuing efforts to document past and present phenologies.  Stay tuned for the next expedition, which we expect to be a real improvement over the last one in multiple ways.  Full results are below:

Amelanchier canadensis Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks  5 35 14.29%
Amelanchier canadensis Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records   30 35 85.71%

Crataegus chrysocarpa Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 3 25 12%
Crataegus chrysocarpa No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 1 25 4%
Crataegus chrysocarpa Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 21 25 84%

Aronia melanocarpa Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 16 79 20.25%
Aronia melanocarpa Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 63 79 79.75%

Robinia pseudoacacia Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 14 76 18.42%
Robinia pseudoacacia No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 2 76 2.63%
Robinia pseudoacacia Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 60 76 78.95%

Viburnum acerifolium Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 28 130 21.54%
Viburnum acerifolium No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 2 130 1.54%
Viburnum acerifolium Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 100 130 76.92%

Acer platanoides Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 13 69 18.84%
Acer platanoides No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 2 69 2.9%
Acer platanoides Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 54 69 78.26%

Actaea rubra Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 20 82 24.39%
Actaea rubra No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 1 82 1.22%
Actaea rubra Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 61 82 74.39%

Celastrus scandens   Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 36 145 24.83%
Celastrus scandens No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 4 145 2.76%
Celastrus scandens Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 104 145 71.72%

Podophyllum peltatum Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 29 100 29%
Podophyllum peltatum No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 2 100 2%
Podophyllum peltatum Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 69 100 69%

Leucanthemum vulgare Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 32 134 23.88%
Leucanthemum vulgare No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 8 134 5.97%
Leucanthemum vulgare Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 92 134 68.66%

Celtis occidentalis Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 24 86 27.91%
Celtis occidentalis No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 4 86 4.65%
Celtis occidentalis Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 58 86 67.44%

Sassafras albidum Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 42 133 31.58%
Sassafras albidum No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 3 133 2.26%
Sassafras albidum Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 88 133 66.17%

Carya glabra Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 81 249 32.53%
Carya glabra No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 4 249 1.61%
Carya glabra Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 164 249 65.86%

Rubus pubescens Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 7 26 26.92%
Rubus pubescens No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 1 26 3.85%
Rubus pubescens Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 17 26 65.38%

Maianthemum racemosum Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 73 260 28.08%
Maianthemum racemosum No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 16 260 6.15%
Maianthemum racemosum Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 170 260 65.38%

Vaccinium angustifolium Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 17 60 28.33%
Vaccinium angustifolium No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 5 60 8.33%
Vaccinium angustifolium Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 38 60 63.33%

Cornus florida Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 66 190 34.74%
Cornus florida No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 7 190 3.68%
Cornus florida Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 117 190 61.58%

Achillea millefolium Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 164 463 35.42%
Achillea millefolium No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 22 463 4.75%
Achillea millefolium Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 276 463 59.61%

Gaylussacia baccata Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 30 75 40%
Gaylussacia baccata No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 3 75 4%
Gaylussacia baccata Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 42 75 56%

Berberis vulgaris Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 12 30 40%
Berberis vulgaris No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 2 30 6.67%
Berberis vulgaris Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 16 30 53.33%

Betula lenta Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 28 57 49.12%
Betula lenta No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 3 57 5.26%
Betula lenta Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 26 57 45.61

Hamamelis virginiana Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 88 167 52.69%
Hamamelis virginiana No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 18 167 10.78%
Hamamelis virginiana Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 60 167 35.93%

Taraxacum officinale Majority match, 2 of 3 records with 0 blanks 175 305 57.38%
Taraxacum officinale No select match on 3 records with 0 blanks 36 305 11.8%
Taraxacum officinale Unanimous match, 3 of 3 records 94 305 30.82%